How’s the Market?
How’s the Market?
This is the #1 question most homeowners ask because they 1) want to know where the real estate market stands and 2) they expect you to be the “expert”. I would answer that question as follows:
l A weather forecaster has a much better chance of predicting the weather vs. a real estate professional trying to predict the direction of the real estate market, with a great degree of accuracy.
l Anyone who seems to overly confident is probably guessing, like the rest of us. However, that being said, it does not mean your real estate pro should be ambivalent, rather it is always more prudent to be “measured” and somewhat “equivocal” (open to more than one interpretation).
l Global events have the potential to affect the U.S. economy more than any other time in U.S. history. Likewise, events happening throughout the U.S. can affect other regions. Considering these nuances, an understanding of global and national trends can affect our local markets regionally and even locally in the New York Metro area.
l Regionally, what is happening in the New York Metro area, may affect our local real estate markets in Connecticut, because of the many ties between the two states, socially, financially and economically.
l Migration patterns clearly show residents in the New York, Los Angeles and Chicago metro areas leaving those states in favor of the South, Southeast and West (see chart below).
l The affordability index in the New York Metro and other major metro areas is causing much of this migration, in addition to increased housing costs (including rentals), and the changing office landscape with remote workers choosing to live in other parts of the U.S.
l All of these and other financial, economic and social conditions are putting pressure on buyers looking to rent or buy, at continued high prices along with higher mortgage rates. The current real estate market still clearly favors sellers, low inventory levels continue and will persist into 2024 because of homeowners’ ability to capitalize on lower mortgage rates both pre and post-pandemic.
For more information, please contact me anytime at (203) 231-8098 or gbakes@wpsir.com.
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